WEATHER WATCH: The potential exists for more heavy rain and flooding next week as a series of upper-level disturbances drags across the islands
Key points
As of 9:00 PM HST on Thursday, April 2:
- A series of upper-level disturbances may move across the islands next week.
- These systems will pull abundant moisture from the deep tropics to the islands.
- The potential exists for heavy rain and flooding across the islands starting as early as Tuesday.
- As with the previous two kona storms, rain from this event could last for several days.
- It remains too early to determine the exact timing and extent of this rainfall event.
Forecast synopsis
As of 3:45 PM HST on Thursday, April 2:
From the National Weather Service office in Honolulu:
Early next week, the first of a potential series of upper level troughs will move by north of the state. This will shift low level winds around to SE and start to bring increased moisture from the south. Tuesday into Wednesday, the moisture appears to increase enough to significantly raise the chance of moderate to heavy rain over the area, and winds may become southerly. There is still a good deal of model spread on how strong this next potential system will be and how much rain may be headed our way. However, the potential for heavy rain and flooding is there, and this will be watched carefully. Confidence in the forecast will increase, as always, as we get closer in time. Please keep yourself updated through the weekend for the latest forecasts.
Weather risk outlook
As of 9:00 PM HST on Thursday, April 2:
A risk outlook has not yet been produced by NWS Honolulu.
Key: · - little to none; 1 - minor; 2 - moderate; 3 - major; 4 - extreme
Projected rainfall totals:
As of 9:00 PM HST on Thursday, April 2:
Below are some preliminary projections for rainfall between now and 2:00 PM HST on Wednesday, April 15.
Please note that it remains far too early to determine the exact timing and severity of any potential rainfall, and large differences in rainfall totals in the table below may be from large differences in timing and the location of the heaviest rain.
| City | NBM | ECMWF | GFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lihue | 1.6 | 7.6 | 1.5 |
| Honolulu | 1.8 | 9.4 | 3.4 |
| Wahiawa | 3.2 | 5.1 | 2.9 |
| Kaneohe | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Kahului | 1.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 |
| Hana | 1.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 |
| Molokai | 2.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 |
| Lanai | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Hilo | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Kona | 0.6 | 3.4 | 0.6 |
More information
For more information on the impacts of this system as it develops, please check out these links:
National Weather Service
- NWS Honolulu homepage
- NWS Honolulu Area Forecast Discussion
- NWS Honolulu on Facebook
- NWS Honolulu on X
Hawaii Emergency Management Agency
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