China Could Mobilise Commercial Ships For Wartime Operations, Drawing Lessons From 1982 Falklands War
Our take
The recent call by a Chinese military analyst, Li, for a detailed survey of the nation’s civilian shipping fleet and the creation of a database of vessels suitable for wartime use, echoes a strategic lesson drawn from the 1982 Falklands War. This isn’t merely a theoretical exercise; it underscores a growing recognition of the potential for commercial vessels to augment military capabilities in a contested maritime environment. The Falklands conflict demonstrated the utility of civilian ships for logistical support, troop transport, and even as temporary naval platforms, a concept China appears keen to replicate and refine. This development warrants careful observation, particularly in light of recent incidents within China’s maritime sector, such as the [Video: Blast At Chinese Shipyard Leaves One Dead, Injures 12 During Firefighting Operation], highlighting the complexities and potential vulnerabilities within the shipbuilding and repair ecosystem crucial to such an initiative. Understanding the operational readiness and integration potential of this vast civilian fleet is paramount for assessing China’s broader maritime power projection capabilities.
The implications extend beyond a simple expansion of naval assets. Mobilizing commercial ships introduces significant logistical challenges, requiring robust command and control structures, standardized operational procedures, and a sophisticated understanding of vessel capabilities. Integrating civilian vessels into military operations also necessitates addressing issues of crew training, arming, and protection against asymmetric threats. Furthermore, the analysis reveals an intent to leverage China’s substantial commercial shipping capacity – a globally dominant force – to bolster its military posture. This is particularly relevant given ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. The scale of China's coastal economy, as explored in [Analysis of natural resource total factor productivity in China’s eastern coastal region based on integrating static SBM-DEA with multi-frontier decomposition], suggests a deep pool of resources that could be readily tapped for military support should the need arise. The efficiency of China’s port infrastructure, as evidenced by the capabilities detailed in [What Can Operators Expect From a Modern Terminal Operating System (TOS) ?], would further streamline the mobilization and deployment of these vessels.
The move represents a shift towards a more adaptable and potentially less predictable approach to maritime warfare. Traditional naval power projection often relies on dedicated warships, which are expensive to build and maintain and can be vulnerable to advanced weaponry. Utilizing commercial vessels, while presenting unique challenges, offers a potentially cost-effective and flexible alternative, particularly for tasks like sealift and logistical support. It also complicates strategic calculations for potential adversaries, as the distinction between civilian and military vessels becomes increasingly blurred. This blurring of lines necessitates enhanced maritime domain awareness and the development of strategies to counter hybrid threats that leverage commercial assets for military purposes. The success of such a mobilization would depend heavily on the seamless integration of these vessels into existing military systems, requiring advanced data sharing and interoperability – capabilities World Data Ocean is uniquely positioned to facilitate through its integrated data ecosystem.
Ultimately, China's focus on leveraging its commercial shipping fleet for potential wartime operations signals a broader trend towards asymmetric capabilities and a willingness to adapt to evolving geopolitical realities. The question now is not *if* such mobilization might occur, but *when* and *how* it will be integrated into China’s overall military strategy. Will this approach be primarily focused on regional contingencies, or does it represent a more ambitious vision for global power projection? The ongoing development and refinement of China's terminal operating systems and shipyard infrastructure will be key indicators to watch, as will any observable shifts in the training and preparedness of the nation’s civilian maritime workforce.
China should speed up plans to use civilian ships to support military operations during a war, a researcher at the country’s top economic planning agency has said, pointing to Britain’s use of commercial vessels during the 1982 Falklands War.
The proposal comes as China’s security and economic interests increasingly extend into the maritime sector.
Using commercial vessels could give the military access to more transport and support ships during a conflict without requiring it to maintain a much larger fleet of specialised vessels in peacetime.
Li Jin, from the Research Centre for Coordinated Economic and National Defence Development under China’s National Development and Reform Commission, made the recommendation in an article published last month in Defence Industry Conversion in China.
The publication comes under China’s State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence.
Lessons from the Falklands War
Li said Britain’s experience in the Falklands War showed how civilian ships could support military operations.
Britain brought dozens of commercial vessels into service within days of the conflict beginning. The ships were used to carry aircraft, fuel and other supplies, as well as for medical and other support missions.
Li said China could learn from that experience by preparing its civilian fleet for possible military use before a conflict begins.
He said this would require more than simply having a large number of ships available. China would also need clear plans for mobilisation, ships designed with defence requirements in mind, and compensation and incentives for companies and workers involved.
China urged to create civilian ship database
Li called for a detailed survey of China’s civilian shipping fleet and a database of vessels that could be used for military purposes.
The database would record information including each ship’s speed, carrying capacity, ownership and crew qualifications.
The proposal gives particular attention to ships such as oil tankers and semi-submersible vessels, which could have specific military uses.
Li also called for clear plans covering command structures, communications, responses to unexpected situations and which ships should be mobilised.
He said China should conduct more frequent exercises to test these plans.
Civilian ships already used for military transport
The article cited a 2018 example in which China’s air force used a 10,000-tonne passenger and cargo ship to move an entire military unit and its equipment.
The ship travelled more than 1,000 nautical miles, or about 1,852 km, from a northern base to a port on China’s southeastern coast.
Li said China should also require new civilian ships to be designed and built with national defence requirements in mind.
Individual ships could have specific conversion plans so they could be adapted for military use when needed.
The article cited the 50,000-tonne semi-submersible Zhen Hua 33 as an example of a vessel with dual-use potential.
Calls for subsidies and tax incentives
Li also proposed better subsidies and compensation for companies and personnel involved in civilian ship mobilisation.
He suggested tax incentives and awards to encourage participation.
Using commercial vessels during a conflict could give China’s military additional logistics capacity without requiring it to maintain as many specialised support ships during peacetime.
But the system would also face practical problems, including crew availability, insurance, compensation and how civilian crews and vessels would operate under military command.
Commercial ships operating in contested waters could also face greater risks.
China has explored modular military systems
The proposal comes after another indication that China is examining ways to adapt civilian vessels for military purposes.
Late last year, a containerised weapon module suite was spotted aboard the cargo ship Zhong Da 79. It was described as including modular missile launchers, radars and truck-mounted electromagnetic catapults.
The sighting led to discussion over whether modular systems could allow merchant ships to be converted into combat platforms during a conflict instead of being used only for transport and logistical support.
References: interestingengineering, scmp
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